The 2015/16 OHL Western Conference playoffs are just around the corner. The Erie Otters who lead the entire league with 105 points will meet the 8th place Saginaw Spirit, the 2nd place Sarnia Sting play the 7th place Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, the 3rd ranked London Knights take on the 6th place Owen Sound Attack, and the 4th place Kitchener Rangers are matched up against the 5th place Windsor Spitfires.
Erie Otters (1) vs Saginaw Spirit (8)
League Rankings
| Points | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Differential | Past 10
(W-L-OTL-SL) |
Power Play | Penalty Killing | |
| Erie | 105
(1st) |
269
(3rd) |
183
(1st) |
+86 (3rd) |
6-4-0-0 | 25.3%
(2nd) |
82.6%
(5th) |
|
Saginaw
|
56 (16th) |
209
(13th) |
282
(16th) |
-73 (15th) |
2-6-2-0 | 16.2%
(16th) |
81.1%
(9th) |
Head to Head
Oct 24 Saginaw 6 at Erie 3
Nov 21 Erie 3 at Saginaw 2
Feb 19 Erie 1 at Saginaw 3
Feb 27 Saginaw 2 at Erie 3
| Erie | Saginaw | |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
| Overtime Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Shootout Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals For | 11 (2.75) | 14 (3.50) |
| Goals Against | 14 (3.50) | 11 (2.75) |
| Goal Differential | -3 (-0.75) | +3 (+0.75) |
| Penalty Minutes | 40 (10/gp) | 31 (7.8/gp) |
| Power Play | 2/10 (20%) | 0/13 (0 %) |
| Penalty Killing | 13/13 (100%) | 8/10 (80%) |
| Shots For | 157 (7%) | 98 (14.3%) |
| Shots Against | 98 (85.7%) | 157 (93%) |
| Shot Differential | +59 (+14.8/gp) | -59 (-14.8/gp) |
Quick Hits
The Otters recorded 49 more points, scored 60 more goals and allowed 99 fewer goals than their first round opponent the Saginaw Spirit. However, in the season series the Spirit were very competitive against Erie splitting the four games and even outscoring the Otters overall 14 to 11. That being said, Erie outshot Saginaw by an average of almost 15 shots per game and are clearly the more talented team. The Spirit will need to elevate their power play while limiting Erie’s power play chances and hope that goaltender Evan Cormier can continue his stellar play against Erie. In four games against the Spirit Dylan Strome, Alex Debrincat, Taylor Raddysh, and Travis Dermott registered no goals. It’s hard to see that trend continuing again. The Otters are the league’s best team heading into the post-season and I expect them to make quick work of Saginaw.
Prediction: Erie Otters in five games
Sarnia Sting (2) vs Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds (7)
League Rankings
| Points | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Differential | Past 10
(W-L-OTL-SL) |
Power Play | Penalty Killing | |
| Sarnia | 91
(5th) |
254
(5th) |
192
(4th) |
+62 (5th) |
8-2-0-0 | 19.3%
(11th) |
84.4% (1st) |
| Sault Ste. Marie | 74
(12th) |
243
(8th) |
233
(13th) |
+10 (10th) |
5-5-0-0 | 19.4%
(9th) |
79.0%
(15th) |
Head to Head
Oct 16 Sault Ste. Marie 2 at Sarnia 5
Oct 23 Sarnia 7 at Sault Ste. Marie 2
Jan 10 Sarnia 5 at Sault Ste. Marie 1
Feb 10 Sarnia 2 at Sault Ste. Marie 1
Feb 21 Sault Ste. Marie 3 at Sarnia 4 (OT)
Mar 3 Sault Ste. Marie 5 at Sarnia 2
| Sarnia | Sault Ste. Marie | |
| Wins | 5 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
| Overtime Losses | 0 | 1 |
| Shootout Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals For | 25 (4.17) | 14 (2.33) |
| Goals Against | 14 (2.33) | 25 (4.17) |
| Goal Differential | +11 (+1.84) | -11 (-1.84) |
| Penalty Minutes | 59 (9.8) | 45 (7.5) |
| Power Play | 1/14 (7.1%) | 2/23 (8.7%) |
| Penalty Killing | 21/23 (91.3%) | 13/14 (92.9%) |
| Shots For | 203 (12.3%) | 153 (10.9%) |
| Shots Against | 153 (89.1%) | 203 (87.7%) |
| Shot Differential | +50 (+8.3/gp) | -50 (-8.3/gp) |
Quick Hits
If you look at the numbers Sarnia seemed to handle the Greyhounds relatively easily but in the last three match-ups the Sting won a pair of one goal games and Sault Ste. Marie was victorious in their last regular season encounter. The Greyhounds are a younger but highly skilled team that could prove to be a tough opponent for the Sting. As evident by their trade deadline acquisitions of Graham, Studnicka and Konecny the Sting believe they can make a strong run for the league title. However, with their energy, balanced scoring and an experienced Brandon Halverson in goal the Sault will prove to be a difficult match-up for Sarnia.
Prediction: Sarnia Sting in six games
London Knights (3) vs Owen Sound Attack (6)
League Rankings
| Points | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Differential | Past 10
(W-L-OTL-SL) |
Power Play | Penalty Killing | |
| London | 105
(2nd) |
319
(1st) |
182
(3rd) |
+137 (1st) |
9-1-0-0 | 29.2%
(1st) |
82.3%
(6th) |
| Owen Sound | 75
(11th) |
209
(13th) |
222
(10th) |
-13 (11th) |
5-4-1-0 | 19.4%
(10th) |
82.0%
(7th) |
Head to Head
Oct 10 London 1 at Owen Sound 2
Oct 23 Owen Sound 1 at London 5
Nov 27 Owen Sound 1 at London 6
Nov 28 London 4 at Owen Sound 1
Dec 19 London 3 at Owen Sound 4 (OT)
Feb 5 Owen Sound 0 at London 5
| London | Owen Sound | |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Overtime Losses | 1 | 0 |
| Shootout Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals For | 24 (4.00) | 9 (1.50) |
| Goals Against | 9 (1.50) | 24 (4.00) |
| Goal Differential | +15 (+3.75) | -15 (-3.75) |
| Penalty Minutes | 81 (13.5/gp) | 61 (10.2/gp) |
| Power Play | 6/25 (24%) | 2/29 (7%) |
| Penalty Killing | 27/29 (93%) | 19/25 (76%) |
| Shots For | 207 (8.6%) | 181 (5%) |
| Shots Against | 181 (95%) | 207 (91.4%) |
| Shot Differential | +26 (+4.3/gp)) | -26 (-4.3/gp) |
Quick Notes
Of all the first round match-ups London has the highest positive goal differential (+3.75) against its opponent. The Knights led the league in goals scored, goal differential and had the 3rd best goals against record. I think that’s what you call an elite and balanced team. Offensively they have three lines that can score with the troika of Marner, Tkachuk and Dvorak dominating the league on a regular basis. If the Attack are going to have any chance of making this a series they will need to average more than 1.50 goals per game and hope that Micheal McNiven and outplay London’s Tyler Parsons by a wide margin in net. The Attack are a good team who could emerge as a true contender next season but at this time London is just too dominant offensively and on special teams.
Prediction: London Knights in five games
Kitchener Rangers (4) vs Windsor Spitfires (5)
League Rankings
| Points | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Differential | Past 10
(W-L-OTL-SL) |
Power Play | Penalty Killing | |
| Kitchener | 95
(4th) |
256
(4th) |
197
(5th) |
+59 (6th) |
4-5-0-1 | 22.2%
(4th) |
80.1% (11th) |
| Windsor | 87
(7th) |
253
(7th) |
200
(7th) |
+53 (7th) |
6-3-0-1 | 23.6%
(3rd) |
79.4%
(13th) |
Head to Head
Oct 9 Windsor 3 at Kitchener 2 (OT)
Dec 13 Kitchener 3 at Windsor 4 (OT)
Jan 29 Windsor 0 at Kitchener 2
Mar 17 Kitchener 4 at Windsor 6
| Kitchener | Windsor | |
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Overtime Losses | 2 | 0 |
| Shootout Losses | 0 | 0 |
| Goals For | 11 (2.75) | 13 (3.25) |
| Goals Against | 13 (3.25) | 11 (2.75) |
| Goal Differential | -2 (-0.5) | +2 (+0.5) |
| Penalty Minutes | 52 (13.0/gp) | 44 (11.0/gp) |
| Power Play | 1/11 (9.1%) | 2/16 (12.5%) |
| Penalty Killing | 14/16 (87.5%) | 10/11 (90.9%) |
| Shots For | 135 (8.2%) | 119 (9.2%) |
| Shots Against | 119 (90.8%) | 135 (91.8%) |
| Shot Differential | +16 (+4.0/gp) | -16 (-4.0/gp) |
Quick Notes
This is probably the must see series of any first round match up. Based on the club’s head to head contests one would expect a tight checking competitive series between two highly skilled teams. The regular season games have all been close and that should carry over into the post season. The Rangers are a veteran team who need their experienced players like Bracco, MacInnis and Franzen to further elevate their game. The Spitfires have three youngsters in Logan Brown, Gabriel Vilardi and goalkeeper Micheal Dipietro who could be the wildcards in this series. Each player will be expected to play a dominant role in their team’s fortunes. Is it expecting too much or can they come up big against a Rangers team that was built to contend this year? I think youth will serve the Spitfires well in this series.